Scenario-based volcano slope stability hazard analysis: Case study of Augustine volcano, Alaska
Information
Volcanoes worldwide have undergone cyclic destruction of their edifices, generating catastrophic mass flows called volcanic debris avalanches. These rapid mass movements of large volumes of material (order of km3) have also had cascading hazards leading to eruptions, tsunamis, and re-mobilization of sediments that can thickly bury and devastate vegetation and river valleys, leading to decades-long hydro-geomorphic impacts to surrounding regions. A critical challenge in predicting such failures and their potential implications in societally relevant time-frames is limited knowledge of (a) source areas that are inherently susceptible to collapses and (b) understanding of their underlying destabilizing factors. This study aims to address these challenges by adopting a scenario-based slope stability hazard analysis that leverages surface and geophysical observational data of the shallow subsurface with 3D geomechanical modeling.
Goals
-
What source areas on a volcano's edifice are inherently susceptible to collapses due to its inherent surface and subsurface structure?
-
How does the stability of the volcano change due to time-varying processes common in volcanic settings (e.g., pore fluid pressurization, seismicity, changing material properties, etc?)
Collaborations and Questions
-
This is an active project and I would love to share and discuss ideas on this project at an upcoming conference. Check out the updates page for upcoming events to catch up. If you are interested in collaborating or have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me here.